Kalshi doubles its valuation in five months: safe bet or media bubble?

The doubling of Kalshi's valuation in five months is not just a financial milestone, but a sign that prediction markets are redefining how uncertainty is traded. But is it sustainable? The startup announced on Thursday a $1 billion Series F round, valuing the company at $22 billion, double what it was in December 2025. The round was led by Coatue, with Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz, and Paradigm. According to a Bloomberg report from May 7, 2026, annualized revenues exceed $1.5 billion.

The rise of prediction markets

Kalshi, along with Polymarket, has capitalized on the boom in event betting: from the Met Gala to election results. On its blog, Kalshi stated that institutional trading grew 800% in six months and that it concentrates 90% of prediction activity in the US. While proponents see Kalshi as the Nasdaq of prediction, critics point out that its model depends on media volatility. Is it a safe bet?

Surprising figures

A valuation of $22 billion implies a revenue multiple of approximately 14.7 times. That is not exorbitant for a high-growth tech startup, but it reflects very high expectations. The company claims to bill $1.5 billion annually, but it does not break down whether those revenues are recurring or dependent on activity spikes, such as elections or viral events.

Regulatory context and competition

Polymarket, Kalshi's main rival, has been working to lift the restrictions on its US operations since a CFTC ban in 2022. According to a Bloomberg report from April 2026, Polymarket is in talks with the CFTC to regularize its situation, which could erode Kalshi's dominance. The battle for leadership is not settled.

What is behind the growth?

The 800% increase in institutional trading suggests that big players are adopting these markets as a hedging tool. However, it also raises questions about the sustainability of the model. Companies like Betterment or Robinhood also had meteoric valuations before facing corrections when the market cooled. Will Kalshi follow the same path?

Risks and criticisms

Some analysts warn that valuations of companies like Kalshi may be inflated by the enthusiasm around artificial intelligence and fintech. The lack of clear regulation in many countries poses a risk: a regulatory change could drastically affect their operations. Additionally, reliance on news events to generate betting volume makes revenues volatile.